From AI Optimist to Doomer: One Developer's Journey
The Education of a Doomer
Fernando Borretti explains why he shifted from AI optimism to deep concern. He examines economics, alignment, and control, arguing that AI's rapid progress in capabilities outpaces our ability to understand or govern it. He points to the rise of AI slop in writing and the degradation of software engineering discourse as evidence that we are willingly ceding control to machines. Borretti warns that as AI becomes more capable, humans may become economically and politically irrelevant, and even our vices are being automated.
If we're even automating our vices, what's left?
- rahulyc
I'm not sure what happens (I think no one does), but with every other technology, I can opt-out if I don't want to use it.
Even if I get unemployed, I don't see how I can opt-out when it comes to everyone everywhere using it.
Governments historically have considered humans as assets - it's even called "human capital", and they require us for tax revenue and to run the state. What happens when we aren't needed? Even if the AI is magically aligned to the state, I don't see how I end up the winning side of that. It's not like we're getting a voice in how this is shoved down our throats today. Why would it get any better when AGI can do everything humans can do? What still gives us a voice in the world?
- skybrian
> What’s the last major life decision you made without at least consulting an AI?
This seems like asking what's the last major decision you made without at least doing a web search. There's nothing wrong with doing a search. The trouble is when you rely too much on what you read, without checking it.
- ArcHound
The issue with devaluation of human work is that the automation doesn't have to be real. All you have to do is make nearly all employers agree that a particular job can pay less.
And that's the case today - new AI being a sufficient programmer replacement is enough of a statement to do layoffs with record profits without impact on stock prices.
- throwawayk7h
> if humans are economically useless, the state does not need them. Why pay out UBI to people who have neither economic nor political power?
Forgive me if I'm naïve. But wouldn't people just vote for UBI in this case?
- aranelsurion
> what if GPT-3 hadn’t worked? What would we have to look forward to, in this alternate 2026?
One would hope maybe boring things like healthcare, better living conditions, better functioning societies, and so on.
Not as exciting as flying cars and thinking machines for sure.