CIA Model Puts the U.S. in the Highest-Risk Category for Civil War or Coup
U.S. in Highest-Risk Category for Civil War, Coup, or Collapse in CIA Model
A political scientist applied the CIA's instability forecasting model to the United States, which the agency is legally barred from studying. The model, over 80% accurate two years out, identifies partial democracy with deep factionalism as the highest-risk regime type. The U.S. now scores as an anocracy on Polity and has been downgraded by V-Dem, placing it in that danger zone. The author argues this makes breakup or secession worth considering.
The model predicts instability, and the words people reach for are civil war and coup.
- huijzer
If the CIA could figure out how to stabilize a country that would be nice, but seems they know only how to destabilize countries when looking at their track record [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...
- maelito
Yes, that's the impression from abroad, from Europe.
- throw0101a
"High-risk category" sounds like something will happen in the future, but there's already been a coup attempt:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capito...
- assimpleaspossi
How does he know what the CIA's model says? How did he get this inside information? And shouldn't he now have a warrant out for his arrest for obtaining such a thing?
- HPsquared
Always worth studying 1980s USSR.