What happens when you analyze college football like the CIA?
What happens when you analyze your favorite college football team like the CIA?
A lifelong Illinois fan applies intelligence analysis methods to college football. After a home loss to Duke, his model's playoff odds dropped from 8% to 4%, but forecasts for the offensive line and quarterback improved. The experiment reveals how to update beliefs based on evidence rather than letting one game dictate the entire season's outlook.
A loss is obviously important, but it doesn't follow that everything you believed about the team should move in the same direction.
- tocs3
The kicker has a drug habit. The quarterback is making a suspicious number of overseas call. The coach is having an extramarital affair that could be exploited by a blackmailer.
- ungreased0675
Fascinating project.
How are the probabilities being measured? I’m skeptical of AI analysis because my past experience is that it appears to be analyzing, but behind the curtain there’s not even a fraction of the same rigor a human analyst would have done. In other words It’s very shallow but looks deep.
- blitzar
He can't hit a curve ball... And an ugly girlfriend.
Ugly girlfriend means no confidence.
- MisterMunchkin
I find it really cringey when people describe a whole intelligent system… and it’s just asking copilot to generate slop.
It didn’t “calculate probabilities”, it just hallucinated slop. The same kind of slop almost started WW3 when a similar “intelligence analyst” system told the US navy to attack China because they were smuggling nukes into Iran. They weren’t, it was all slop. But their system was full of “calculated probabilities” too!
- williadc
The Culinary Institute of America doesn't have a football team that I can find, but I would still like to analyze it.